Analyzing HCC 0.00%↑ was difficult for many reasons because of the cyclicality of the met coal and steel markets as well as the operational dynamics of the company. It’s best to look at the immediate years first to see what changes are happening with the company first and how they influenced the numbers. But before looking at the projection table, I used a beta for mining and metals at 0.96 which was re-levered to 1.00, a ERP of 4.5%, pre-cost of debt at 4.09%, tax rate of -4.69% (most likely due to NOLs).
HCC 0.00%↑ management put out guidance for Year 1 financials (2026), in their February update for Q4 2025 and full year 2025 results presentation.
In this 2026 guidance, they offer ranges of values for several key metrics of which I use the midpoint in the subsequent calculations. Using these numbers, I derive a revenue of ~$1.69 billion, operating margin of ~2.37%, and capex (sustaining and project capex) of ~$172.5 million.
