Priced for Death but Delivering Growth: A Deep Dive into ADBE

Originally posted on Patreon on Dec 23rd 2025

If you spent any time reading financial articles recently, the sentiment on Adobe has been that Adobe is primed for disruption and actively getting disrupted.

Why pay for a bloated Creative Cloud subscription when OpenAI’s latest model can generate a logo in three seconds? Why learn Premiere Pro when an AI agent can edit a video from a text prompt? According to ultra bearish market sentiment, Adobe is the next Kodak—a legacy giant about to be swept away by a technological tidal wave it didn’t see coming.

This narrative is simple and seductive, but there is a massive problem with that story: The financials don’t support it.

Adobe wrapped up fiscal year 2025 with record-breaking numbers. While the stock price has compressed to valuations we haven’t seen in years, the company is printing cash, growing it’s backlog, and successfully pivoting it’s business model. This creates a classic dislocation—a gap between perceived risk and actual business performance.

Let’s dive into the analysis to see why Adobe might be one of the most misunderstood trades in tech right now.